Criteria For Effectiveness

1. Expected Levels of Achievement

School system effectiveness is somewhat related to the socioeconomic status of the community and the educational levels of parents. Recent studies have suggested that early childhood experiences affect learning and development, with children from impoverished environments generally achieving at lower levels than those from more enriching situations. An article in the April 21, 1997 issue of US News and World Report, for example, supports the notion that improving social and family conditions, particularly in the early years, can enhance development. Achievement has also been associated with child rearing practices, assertive mothers generally rearing children who achieve at higher levels than those reared by less assertive mothers. (See Guy Odom, Mothers, Leadership, and Success, Houston: Polybius Press, 1989.)

The effective school research has abundantly demonstrated that achievement levels between poor and affluent students can be narrowed considerably while increasing levels of achievement for all students.

Nevertheless, the criteria of effectiveness are generally met at a higher level when student populations contain a small percentage of free and reduced lunch students (an indicator of poverty levels) and the educational level of parents is high school completion or above. We can generally assume that school systems which have better entry level characteristics than the state average will meet the criteria of effectiveness at a higher level than those whose entry level characteristics match or are below the state average. Entry level characteristics used for predicting student achievement levels are items such as:

• percent of student population on free and reduced lunch;
• percent of student population which is minority;
• percent of student population deemed ready for kindergarten;
• percent of student population performing on grade level in grades 1-3;
• mean score of student population on tests of cognitive ability in grades 1, 2 or 3;
• average family income of parents in the community;
• percent of students' mothers who have graduated from high school;
• percent of teaching staff having a Master's degree or higher;
• the general fund expenditure per pupil, excluding capital expenditures; and
• percent of teaching staff having temporary certificates or letters of authorization.

In this audit, the items used to predict the levels at which the effectiveness criteria should be met by the Duval County Public School District include:

• percent of student population on free and reduced lunch;
• percent of student population which is non-white;
• percent of teaching staff having a Master's degree or higher;
• the general fund expenditure per pupil, excluding capital funds;
• percent of student population performing on grade level in grade 3;
• percent of community members having a high school diploma or higher level of education;
• the median household income in the county;
• percent of students indicating readiness for kindergarten.

Educational researchers and auditors realize that predictions and judgments cannot be made from a single indicator. Therefore, the audit uses a multiple variable approach to making recommendations and arriving at conclusions. It is the same method used by various state departments of education to establish accountability and validate school effectiveness. It was initially developed by the South Carolina Department of Education (Division of Public Accountability) and has been used in several other states.

If a number of variables indicate something, and all the variables are in the same direction, then the confidence level of the prediction, or the conclusion, is well established. This is a commonly accepted practice in educational auditing. To predict school results for the Duval County Public School District, we find these conditions:

• percent of student population on free and reduced lunch is 41.4 percent;
• percent of student population which is non-white is 45.3 percent;
• percent of teaching staff having a Master's degree or higher is 33.7 percent;
• the general fund expenditure per pupil, excluding capital funds is $4,632;
• the promotion rate of students at grade three is 96.8 percent;
• 57 percent of community members have a high school diploma or higher level of education;
• the median household income is about $34,303; and
• percent of students indicating kindergarten readiness is 79.5 percent.

Given these factors, the Duval County Public School District should establish the following levels of effectiveness: {I}

• The grade point average of the senior class should be 2.2.
• The district attendance ratio (ADA/ADM) should be 95 percent.
• Achievement on norm-referenced tests for Total Reading should be at - or above - the 63rd percentile.
• Achievement on norm referenced tests for Total Mathematics should be at - or above - the 65th percentile.
• On criterion-referenced tests, 94 percent of the student population should achieve mastery in both Reading and Mathematics.
• At the high school level, 12 percent of the juniors and seniors should be enrolled in Advanced Placement (AP) courses.
• Of the students taking AP examinations, 70 percent of all examinations should earn a score of 3,4 or 5.
• The drop-out rate, cumulative in grades 9-12, should be under 15 percent.
• The Teacher Absence Index (TAI) should be at - or below - 5.0 days (See Appendix C).
• On the ACT, the school system mean should be 20.5 or higher.
• On the SAT, the school system mean should be 1006 or higher.
• For the perception data, the index should be at - or below - 2.0 for all five correlates of effectiveness.

SEE APPENDIX D FOR THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE DUVAL COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT MEETS THESE EFFECTIVENESS LEVELS. APPENDIX D provides the means of the results variables, the results of one standard deviation above the mean (the EFFECTIVENESS LEVELS) and the current status of the variables in the Duval County Public School District.

Additional demographic data related to instructional staff turnover, graduation rates and out-of-school suspension rates which may be of interest were collected and are included as Appendix J. In addition, Dr. Louis Mazzoli worked with Dr. William Fryar to obtain supplemental data regarding special education students and programs (Appendix K). The data in these appendices are presented for information only and have not been analyzed or interpreted. Therefore, no conclusions should be drawn from the raw data.

Generally, students achieving at a certain level in early grades should continue to achieve at that same level in upper grades. When this does not occur, a more rigorous academic program should be provided at upper grade levels. Uniform achievement from grade level to grade level is known as "value added" achievement. In the Duval County Public School District, achievement is higher in early grades than in grades six and seven as indicated by both norm-referenced and criterion-referenced tests. These results suggest a lessening of instructional rigor in these grades. In addition, reading instruction needs to be more effective in early grades. The cognitive ability of the children in Duval County is higher than the reported levels of achievement in reading.

When students achieve at a particular level in one cognitive area, they should be expected to achieve at that same level in other cognitive areas. Cognition is the ability to interpret environmental symbols. Individuals can do just as well in one cognitive area as on any other cognitive area.

The data in the Duval County Public School District indicate a need for greater effectiveness in the teaching of reading in early grades. The differences between achievement in reading and mathematics are beyond the standard errors of measurement. This is indicated by both norm- and criterion-referenced test data. In addition, the differences between high and low socio-economic students need to be reduced. Low socio-economic status may account for 8-10 percent of the differences, but differences beyond that can be reduced with effective instruction and adequate resources.

The school system does appear to have a comprehensive Advanced Placement program. The data indicate that more than 24 percent of the eligible student population is in Advanced Placement classes. Yet only 40% of the Advanced Placement tests establish eligibility for college credit by attaining a score of 3, 4, or 5.

Schools are generally evaluated in relationship to the rigor of the class offerings, especially to the degree that honors, AP and International Baccalaureate classes are available.

Although the Duval County Public School District has sufficient numbers of students in Advanced Placement classes, the percentage earning eligibility for college credit should be improved. This can usually be accomplished by reducing grade inflation, training teachers and adhering to the Advanced Placement curriculum. Improving test-taking skills can also help students obtain higher levels of achievement. The Duval County Public School District is commended for having a large population in Advanced Placement, but it should make greater effort to provide more rigorous instruction which should result in producing 70 percent of the Advanced Placement tests taken attaining a score of 3, 4 or 5.

An analysis of grade point averages indicates the highest grade inflation occurs in the lowest achieving schools. This is suggestive of low expectations for those students who most need to have higher expectations. Schools with grade inflation tend to reward low quality work and grades do not reflect actual learning levels.

In an examination of the high schools, we find the following:

School	Achievement/SAT	GPA	Standard	Inflation Factor
Stanton College Preparatory	1147	2.75	2.3	.45
Douglas Anderson School of the Arts	991	2.72	2.2	.52
Mandarin High School	998	2.69	2.2	.49
Terry Park High School	992	2.44	2.2	.24
Samuel W Wolfson High School	981	2.49	2.2	.29
Sandalwood High School	971	2.47	2.1	.37
Nathan B Forrest High School	969	2.51	2.1	.41
Duncan U Fletcher High School	966	2.73	2.1	.63
Edward White High School	917	2.39	2.0	.39
Baldwin Middle-High School	906	2.72	2.0	.72
Robert E Lee High School	904	2.29	2.0	.29
Englewood High School	897	2.39	2.0	.39
First Coast High School	896	2.58	2.0	.58
Andrew Jackson High School	864	2.43	1.9	.53
Paxon Advanced Studies	804	2.44	1.8	.64
William M Raines High School	794	2.45	1.8	.65
Jean Ribault High School	788	2.17	1.8	.37

Severe grade inflation is evident in schools (with achievement levels below normative) having grade point averages of 2.4, 2.5 or 2.6. Even schools achieving at normative levels tend to have GPA's above 2.2. The eight highest achieving schools have a lower inflation factor (.425) than the nine lowest achieving schools (.507).

Grade inflation is indicative of low expectations and the awarding of high grades for low quality work. This should be corrected as soon as possible.

1. Student Attendance

Currently, student attendance is at 92.9 percent. The effectiveness level is 95 percent. A school-by-school analysis should be conducted to improve attendance at schools which have the lowest attendance rates. Disclosure of attendance levels to students and parents is helpful in attaining higher levels of attendance.

2. Teacher Attendance

Currently, the teacher absence ratio is 5.6. The effectivenss level is 5.0 days per teacher per year. Teacher attendance is a proxy indicator of effectiveness. The higher the absence ratio the less effective is a school system. The current level of absence in the Duval County Public School District is near the effectiveness level of its population group.

With little effort the effectiveness level can be achieved. The Duval County Public School District is to be commended for the current status of its teacher absence ratio.

The drop-out ratio in this audit is established for grades 9-12 on a cumulative basis. In the Duval County Public School District the cumulative drop-out rate is 24 percent. The effectiveness level for this demographic group is under 15 percent. The mean is 27 percent. Efforts should be made to reduce the drop-out ratio. Strategies useful in this area are:

• Economic incentives for high risk students
• Alternative education opportunities
• Mentoring programs
• Class acceleration scheduling
• Community partnerships aimed at drop-out reduction
• Intensive counseling sessions for high risk students
• Reclamation programs for students who have dropped out of school.

The most effective way to reduce drop-outs is to provide ways for students to succeed based on concrete, attainable levels of effectiveness and to promote participation in school activities. A principal basis for school success is the ablity to read well, an area that needs to be improved in the Duval County Public School District.

The Duval County Public School District has developed excellent school improvement plans for each school. The standards, however, are not based on empirical information and probably are arbitrary at best. Unless opportunities to learn are equalized at early ages, demographic differences cannot be completely eliminated in any known educational setting among groups. They can, however, be narrowed and should be.